“New patterns of trade emerge”

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No longer just a trend, globalization is now the dominant business environment and we are seeing new patterns of trade clearly emerge.

Today, there is a net redistribution of wealth away from the rapid-growth economies — a process accelerated by the financial downturn and the economic recession that it has caused. Companies from those rapid-growth markets are now challenging the giants of the Fortune and Forbes lists.

We are witnessing a surge of investment from west to east, some of it speculative but much of it the result of by individual businesses decisions.

Focusing on west to east misses the important east to east and growing east to west dimension. And centering on flows to India and China misses the far greater increase that is happening within regional blocs closer to home.

World exports

Although global trade collapsed during the financial crisis, it has since bounced back strongly, led by trade among emerging markets.

But what remains unclear is whether the key trends of the past ten years can be expected to extend into the coming decade, or whether the global financial crisis has changed the dynamic of the global economy, resulting in new patterns of international trade.

 

A model of future international trade patterns for the next 10 years

Working with Oxford Economics, we have sought to model the future patterns of international trade for the next 10 years.

The report includes:

  • Changes in geography, supply, sectors
  • The brightest prospects
  • FDI flows and the need for a local presence
  • Global trade growth to become more concentrated

World trade has recovered strongly following the global financial crisis. But rather than a return to business as usual, we are now seeing new patterns of international trade emerge.

Businesses will need to adjust their strategies to reflect the changing patterns of world trade that are developing and are poised to intensify over the next decade.

Source: http://www.ey.com/GL/en/Issues/Business-environment/Trading-places–New-patterns-of-international-trade

Some forces in international trade

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Trade between countries is beneficial because these countries differ in their relative economic strengths—some have more advanced technology and some have lower costs. The International Product Life Cycle suggests that countries will differ in their timing of the demand for various products. Products tend to be adopted more quickly in the United States and Japan, for example, so once the demand for a product (say, VCRs) is in the decline in these markets, an increasing market potential might exist in other countries (e.g., Europe and the rest of Asia). Internalization/transaction costs refers to the fact that developing certain very large scale projects, such as an automobile intended for the World market, may entail such large costs that these must be spread over several countries.

Economics of international trade

Exchange rates come in two forms:

  1. “Floating”—here, currencies are set on the open market based on the supply of and demand for each currency.
  2. “Fixed”—currencies may be “pegged” to another currency (e.g., the Argentine currency is guaranteed in terms of a dollar value)

Trade balances and exchange rates- When exchange rates are allowed to fluctuate, the currency of a country that tends to run a trade deficit will tend to decline over time, since there will be less demand for that currency.  This reduced exchange rate will then tend to make exports more attractive in other countries, and imports less attractive at home.

Measuring country wealth– There are two ways to measure the wealth of a country.  The nominal per capita gross domestic product (GDP) refers to the value of goods and services produced per person in a country if this value in local currency were to be exchanged into dollars.

The GNP, for example, includes income made by citizens working abroad, and does not include the income of foreigners working in the country

Political and legal influences

The political situation- The political relations between a firm’s country of headquarters (or other significant operations) and another one may, through no fault of the firm’s, become a major issue.

Laws across borders- When laws of two countries differ, it may be possible in a contract to specify in advance which laws will apply, although this agreement may not be consistently enforceable.  Alternatively, jurisdiction may be settled by treaties, and some governments, such as that of the U.S., often apply their laws to actions, such as anti-competitive behavior, perpetrated outside their borders (extra-territorial application).

The reality of legal systems– Some legal systems, such as that of the U.S., are relatively “transparent”—that is, the law tends to be what its plain meaning would suggest.  In some countries, however, there are laws on the books which are not enforced (e.g., although Japan has antitrust laws similar to those of the U.S., collusion is openly tolerated).  Further, the amount of discretion left to government officials tends to vary.

Legal systems of the World-There are four main approaches to law across the World, with some differences within each:

  1. Common law, the system in effect in the U.S., is based on a legal tradition of precedent. Each case that raises new issues is considered on its own merits, and then becomes a precedent for future decisions on that same issue.  Although the legislature can override judicial decisions by changing the law or passing specific standards through legislation, reasonable court decisions tend to stand by default.
  2. Code law, which is common in Europe, gives considerably shorter leeway to judges, who are charged with “matching” specific laws to situations—they cannot come up with innovative solutions when new issues such as patentability of biotechnology come up. There are also certain differences in standards.
  • Islamic law is based on the teachings of the Koran, which puts forward mandates such as a prohibition of usury, or excessive interest rates. This has led some Islamic countries to ban interest entirely; in others, it may be tolerated within reason.  Islamic law is ultimately based on the need to please God, so “getting around” the law is generally not acceptable.  Attorneys may be consulted about what might please God rather than what is an explicit requirements of the government.
  1. Socialist law is based on the premise that “the government is always right” and typically has not developed a sophisticated framework of contracts (you do what the governments tells you to do) or intellectual property protection (royalties are unwarranted since the government ultimately owns everything).

Culture

Culture is part of the external influences that impact the consumer. That is, culture represents influences that are imposed on the consumer by other individuals.

The definition of culture offered one text is “That complex whole which includes knowledge, belief, art, morals, custom, and any other capabilities and habits acquired by man person as a member of society.”

  1. Culture, as a “complex whole,” is a system of interdependent components.
  2. Knowledge and beliefs are important parts.
  • Other issues are relevant. Art, for example, may be reflected in the rather arbitrary practice of wearing ties in some countries and wearing turbans in others

Culture has several important characteristics:

(1)  Culture is comprehensive.  This means that all parts must fit together in some logical fashion.

(2)  Culture is learned rather than being something we are born with.

(3)  Culture is manifested within boundaries of acceptable behavior.

(4)  Conscious awareness of cultural standards is limited.  One American spy was intercepted by the Germans during World War II simply because of the way he held his knife and fork while eating.

(5)  Cultures fall somewhere on a continuum between static and dynamic depending on how quickly they accept change.

The Global Market Place

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Globalization of Markets and Competition: Trade is increasingly global in scope today. There are several reasons for this. One significant reason is technological—because of improved transportation and communication opportunities today, trade is now more practical. Thus, consumers and businesses now have access to the very best products from many different countries. Increasingly rapid technology lifecycles also increases the competition among countries as to who can produce the newest in technology. In part to accommodate these realities, countries in the last several decades have taken increasing steps to promote global trade through agreements such as the General Treaty on Trade and Tariffs, and trade organizations such as the World Trade Organization (WTO), North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), and the European Union (EU).

Stages in the International Involvement of a Firm.

Several stages through which a firm may go as it becomes increasingly involved across borders-

  1. A purely domestic firm focuses only on its home market, has no current ambitions of expanding abroad, and does not perceive any significant competitive threat from abroad. Such a firm may eventually get some orders from abroad, which are seen either as an irritation (for small orders, there may be a great deal of effort and cost involved in obtaining relatively modest revenue) or as “icing on the cake.”
  2. As the firm begins to export more, it enters the export stage, where little effort is made to market the product abroad, although an increasing number of foreign orders are filled.
  3. In the international stage, as certain country markets begin to appear especially attractive with more foreign orders originating there, the firm may go into countries on an ad hoc basis—that is, each country may be entered sequentially, but with relatively little learning and marketing efforts being shared across countries.
  4. In the multi-national stage, some efficiencies are pursued by standardizing across a region (e.g., Central America, West Africa, or Northern Europe).
  5. Finally, in the global stage, the focus centers on the entire World market, with decisions made optimize the product’s position across markets—the home country is no longer the center of the product.